Friday, May 12, 2017

[OC] JaguarGator9's Weird Stat Thread- Eurovision Edition


The final of the offseason series takes me back to my roots. Those are the Weird Stat Threads- the threads that have absolutely nothing to do with football whatsoever, yet, at the same time, have everything to do with football. Want to know some random correlations between a soccer league in China and how that predicts the Browns/Texans games? That’s what the Weird Stat Threads are all about.

Every Friday, as part of the offseason series that I’m doing, I’m going to post one of these relating to a topical event in terms of a team’s performance during a season. These won’t be about individual games, but rather, how a certain team does when a specific event occurs. Each week will be a correlation with something that’s relevant, such as a competition that’s currently happening. This week, it’s about the Eurovision Song Contest.

The finals for Eurovision are on Saturday, and I’m genuinely excited for them. Not only do I have a vested interest in Eurovision (side note- Italy’s probably running away with it on Saturday, but if anyone’s going to win that’s not Italy, it’ll be Portugal), but that’s where I get a lot of the material for the Weird Stat Threads that I do during the season. So, in honor of the final being on Saturday, I figured to dedicate a Weird Stat Thread to Eurovision and how the outcome influences particular seasons for teams. Let’s dive right in.

  • The United Kingdom has finished last in Eurovision three times (2003, 2008, 2010). All three times, the Baltimore Ravens not only made the playoffs, but played in a wild card game where the road team won. In 2003, the Ravens were the home team in a playoff game against the Titans, and lost 20-17. In 2008, the Ravens were the road team in a playoff game against the Dolphins, and won 27-9. And, in 2010, the Ravens were the road team in a playoff game against the Chiefs, and won 30-7.

  • It gets a bit creepier though, because all three times that the United Kingdom came last in Eurovision, the wild card game involving the Ravens should have had exactly 37 points scored. In 2003, the Ravens lost 20-17. In 2010, the Ravens won 30-7. And in 2008, the Ravens won 27-9. Dan Carpenter missed an extra point in the fourth quarter of that game; had he have made the chip shot extra point, it would’ve been 27-10, and exactly 37 points would’ve been scored.

  • The United Kingdom has finished last in Eurovision three times (2003, 2008, 2010). All three times, the best NFC West team to miss the playoffs finished 7-9. In 2003, the Rams and Seahawks made the playoffs; the next best team was the San Francisco 49ers, who went 7-9. In 2008, the Cardinals made the playoffs; the next best team was the San Francisco 49ers, who went 7-9. And, in 2010, the Seahawks made the playoffs; the next best team was the Rams, who went 7-9.

  • The United Kingdom has finished third in Eurovision three times (1973, 1980, 2002). All three times, the Raiders failed to win exactly 5 games. In 1973, they went 9-4-1 (5 games not won). In 1980, they went 11-5 (5 games not won). And, in 2002, they went 11-5 (5 games not won). Since their creation in 1960, the Raiders have failed to win exactly 5 games just 4 times, with the other time coming in 1984, so this is not a common occurrence.

  • The United Kingdom has finished third in Eurovision three times (1973, 1980, 2002). All three times, the Chiefs won exactly half of their games. In 1973, they went 7-5-2 in a 14-game season (7 games won, 7 games not won). In 1980, they went 8-8 in a 16-game season (8 games won, 8 games not won). And, in 2002, they went 8-8 in a 16-game season (8 games won, 8 games not won). Again, this is not a common occurrence; since 1990, this has only happened once (2002), which was a year that the UK came in third

  • Iceland has finished 15th in Eurovision three times (1991, 1995, 2014). All three times, two teams from the NFC North/Central made the playoffs, with one of them being the Detroit Lions. All three times, the Dallas Cowboys won a playoff game and ended up playing an NFC North/Central team in their second game; in 1991, they played the Lions in the divisional round, in 1995, they played they Packers in the NFC Championship, and in 2014, they played the Packers in the divisional round.

  • Iceland has finished 15th in Eurovision three times (1991, 1995, 2014). All three times, the Lions improved in the wins column to make the playoffs. They jumped from 6-10 to 12-4 from 1990 to 1991, jumped from 9-7 to 10-6 from 1994 to 1995, and jumped from 7-9 to 11-5 from 2013 to 2014. Unfortunately for the Lions, Iceland got eliminated in the semifinals of Eurovision, so they can’t finish in 15th

  • Cyprus has finished 11th in Eurovision four times (1989, 1992, 1994, 1998). All four times, the Minnesota Vikings won the NFC Central (now the NFC North), while the Green Bay Packers finished in second. Additionally, all four times, the Vikings won their final game of the season; they beat the Bengals in 1989 by a score of 29-21, beat the Packers in 1992 by a score of 27-7, beat the 49ers in 1994 by a score of 21-14, and beat the Tennessee Oilers in 1998 by a score of 26-16

  • Cyprus has finished 11th in Eurovision four times (1989, 1992, 1994, 1998). All four times, the lowest wild card in the NFC advanced to the second round before losing to the #1 seed. In 1989, the #5 seeded Rams beat the Eagles in the wild card round before losing to the #1 seeded Giants in the divisional round (the playoffs only had 10 teams back then). In 1992, #6 seeded Washington beat #3 seeded Minnesota in the wild card round before losing to the #1 seeded 49ers in the divisional round. In 1994, #6 seeded Chicago beat #3 seeded Minnesota in the wild card round before losing to the #1 seeded 49ers in the divisional round. And, in 1998, #6 seeded Arizona beat #3 seeded Dallas in the wild card round before losing to the #1 seeded Vikings in the divisional round

  • Austria has finished 21st in Eurovision three times (1988, 1997, 2004). All three times, the Super Bowl was played between a team that had won it earlier in the decade and a team that had never won it, but had participated in a Super Bowl before. In the 1988 season, Super Bowl XXIII was played between the 49ers (who had won 2 Super Bowls in the 1980s) and the Bengals (who made it to Super Bowl XVI but lost). In the 1997 season, Super Bowl XXXII was played between the Packers (who had won Super Bowl XXXI the year before) and the Broncos (who made it to 4 Super Bowls but lost). And, in the 2004 season, Super Bowl XXXIX was played between the Patriots (who had won 2 Super Bowls in the 2000s) and the Eagles (who made it to Super Bowl XV but lost).

  • Austria has finished 21st in Eurovision three times (1988, 1997, 2004). All three times, the Minnesota Vikings participated in the wild card game and won, but then lost in the divisional round. In 1988, the Vikings beat the Rams in the wild card game but lost to the #2 seeded 49ers in the divisional round. In the 1997 season, the Vikings beat the Giants in the wild card game but lost to the #1 seeded 49ers in the divisional round. And, in 2004, the Vikings beat the Packers in the wild card game but lost to the #1 seeded Eagles in the divisional round

  • Greece has finished 3rd in Eurovision three times (2001, 2004, 2008). All three times, the Steelers won the AFC North, the Ravens finished in second place, and the Bengals and Browns finished bottom 2 in the divisions without winning records. It gets better, though- all three times, the Steelers finished with the best defense in the AFC; they allowed 212 points in 2001, 251 points in 2004, and 223 points in 2008. And, all three times, the Steelers hosted the AFC Championship, hosting in 2001 and 2004 against the Patriots but losing, and hosting in 2008 against the Ravens

  • Greece has finished 3rd in Eurovision three times (2001, 2004, 2008). All three times, the Eagles made it to the NFC Championship (2001 against the Rams, 2004 against the Falcons, and 2008 against the Cardinals). Additionally, all three times, the worst game of the playoffs by margin of victory involved an NFC West team in the divisional round. In 2001, the worst game was Rams/Packers (Rams won 45-17; margin of 28 points). In 2004, the worst game was Falcons/Rams (Falcons won 47-17; margin of 30 points). And, in 2008, the worst game was Cardinals/Panthers (Cardinals won 33-13; margin of 20 points).

  • Spain has finished 2nd in Eurovision four times (1971, 1973, 1979, 1995). All four times, the Dallas Cowboys won the NFC East, and the team that finished second in the NFC East made the playoffs as the top wild card. Washington got the wild card in 1971 and 1973 (only 4 teams made the playoffs), Philadelphia got the top wild card in 1979 (#4 seed), and the top wild card in 1995 (#4 seed).

  • Spain has finished 2nd in Eurovision four times (1971, 1973, 1979, 1995). All four times, the AFC Championship was played between a team that had won the Super Bowl in their city, and a team that had never made the Super Bowl in their city.

Year AFC Championship Won a Super Bowl in Their City No Super Bowls
1971 Baltimore Colts vs. Miami Dolphins Baltimore (Super Bowl V) Miami
1973 Oakland Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Miami (Super Bowl VII) Oakland
1979 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Oilers Pittsburgh (Super Bowls IX, X, XIII) Houston
1995 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts Pittsburgh (Super Bowls IX, X, XIII, XIV) Indianapolis

Remember, this is in their city, so the Colts had never won a Super Bowl in Indianapolis before the 1995 AFC Championship. This is good for the Jaguars, Texans & Chargers if Spain comes in second, but Spain currently has the worst odds of any country that is in the final (they, as a member of the Big Five, get an automatic entry in the final), and their odds on some websites are as high as 500-1. Good luck.

  • Israel has won Eurovision three times (1978, 1979, 1998). All three times, the lowest wild card in both the AFC and the NFC was a team that had never won the Super Bowl at that point
Year Lowest AFC Wild Card Lowest NFC Wild Card
1978 Houston Oilers Philadelphia Eagles
1979 Denver Broncos Chicago Bears
1998 New England Patriots Arizona Cardinals
  • Israel has won Eurovision three times (1978, 1979, 1998). All three times, the Cincinnati Bengals finished the season with the worst record in the AFC. They had a 4-12 record in 1978 (tied with Kansas City for the worst), a 4-12 record in 1979 (the worst), and a 3-13 record in 1998 (tied with Indianapolis for the worst). Additionally, all three times, the Colts were last in their division, while the Cowboys were first.

  • Sweden has won Eurovision six times (1974, 1984, 1991, 1999, 2012, 2015). All six times, Washington had the best record in the NFC East. They went 10-4 in 1974 (tied with the St. Louis Cardinals for best record), then outright won the division in 1984 (11-5), 1991 (14-2), 1999 (10-6), 2012 (10-6), and 2015 (9-7). Keep in mind that since 1988, Washington has won the NFC East just four times, and all four times corresponded with a Sweden victory in Eurovision

  • Belarus has qualified for the Eurovision final four times (2007, 2010, 2013, 2014). All four times, the Patriots, Colts, and Seahawks won their respective divisions. Additionally, all four times, the higher seed in the AFC Championship advanced to the Super Bowl (Patriots over Chargers, Steelers over Jets, Broncos over Patriots, Patriots over Colts). For those wondering, yes, Belarus qualified for the final this year.

  • Turkey has finished last in Eurovision three times (1975, 1983, 1987). All three times, the AFC representative in the Super Bowl was the #1 seed, while the NFC representative was out of the NFC East. Super Bowl X was between Pittsburgh (#1 seed) and Dallas (NFC East), Super Bowl XVIII was played between the LA Raiders (#1 seed) and Washington (NFC East), and Super Bowl XXII was played between Denver (#1 seed) and Washington (NFC East). Turkey did not participate in Eurovision this year, so this stat won’t apply in 2017

  • Norway has won Eurovision three times (1985, 1995, 2009). All three times, the Dallas Cowboys won the NFC East and advanced to the divisional round. Additionally, all three times, an AFC East team not only got the #5 seed in the playoffs, but advanced to the AFC Championship. In 1985, the #5 seeded Patriots won their first 2 games, then won another one and made it to Super Bowl XX. In 1995, the #5 seeded Colts (in the AFC East at the time) won their first 2 games before losing to the Steelers in the AFC Championship. And, in 2009, the #5 seeded Jets won their first 2 games before losing to the Colts in the AFC Championship

  • Norway has won Eurovision three times (1985, 1995, 2009). All three times, in the ensuing Super Bowl, the NFC team won the game while throwing no interceptions, while the AFC team was led by a quarterback that threw exactly 1 touchdown and at least 1 interception. Grogan threw 1 TD and 2 INTs in Super Bowl XX for the Patriots, O’Donnell threw 1 TD and 3 INTs in Super Bowl XXX for the Steelers, and Manning threw 1 TD and 1 INT in Super Bowl XLIV for the Colts. Adding onto that, oddly enough, the leading receiver for each team did not score a touchdown. In Super Bowl XX, Gault (129 yards- CHI) and Morgan (51 yards- NE) did not score; in Super Bowl XXX, Irvin (76 yards- DAL) and Hastings (98 yards- PIT) did not score, and in Super Bowl XLIV, Colston (83 yards- NO) and Clark (86 yards- IND) did not score

  • And finally, Denmark has finished 8th in Eurovision three times (1958, 1990, 1999). All three times, the championship game was played between 2 teams with exactly 3 losses. In 1958, the Colts (9-3) beat the Giants (9-3) in the NFL Championship. In 1990, the Giants (13-3) beat the Bills (13-3) in Super Bowl XXV. And, in 1999, the Rams (13-3) beat the Titans (13-3) in Super Bowl XXXIV

I’ll probably have a thread sometime next week about what actually happened at Eurovision and how those results correlate to the NFL season. If you actually want to watch Eurovision this year, it’s on Logo TV. Fair warning- the people providing commentary are brain-dead, and actually will make you wish that Phil Simms was commentating. I’m not exaggerating when I say they are the worst commentators of all-time. They called last year’s winning song, “1944,” a happy song that you’d hear in a Disney movie. Straight from the Wikipedia page on the song:

The lyrics for “1944” concern the deportation of the Crimean Tatars, in the 1940s, by the Soviet Union at the hands of Joseph Stalin because of their alleged collaboration with the Nazis.

Yep. Definite happy Disney song. This commentary will make your ears bleed. It’s a fun competition if you can get past the annoying commentary by the people at Logo TV, but fair warning in advance.

Lost Leagues (Sundays) Record Watch- Offense (Mondays) Draft Scratchers (Tuesdays) Record Watch- Defense (Wednesdays) One Hit Wonders (Thursdays) Weird Stat Threads (Fridays)
Part I: United Football League Part I: Passing Yards Part I: Roger Vick (NY Jets, 1987) Part II: Sacks Part I: Derek Loville (San Francisco, 1995) Part I: NFL vs. Eurovision
Part II: Spring Football League


Submitted May 12, 2017 at 08:32AM by JaguarGator9
via reddit http://ift.tt/2pFtSm1

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