So we're definitely at the point of offseason where people are getting hyped about their rookies, and talking about how they fill all the holes that their team has, and how theres no direction to go but up. Almost every team (besides like the Jets) assume theyre going to probably improve. However that's obviously not the case, so lets instead pick 16 teams that'll improve, and 16 that'll regress (assuming that no teams remain exactly the same and that theres about an equal amount of improvement and regression). My list is below, but tell me what you guys think.
Seattle Seahawks - Adding Eddie Lacy to the backfield, plus probably more health for Rawls/Prosise. O-line could go from worst to bottom 3-5 with Joeckel. Wilson fully healthy and ET3 back will be huge.
San Francisco 49ers - Coaching change should be beneficial, and the GM change most likely was. QB is still a bottom end starter, but more confident in Shanahan's scheme. Better RB rotation, best FB in the league, Garcon over Torrey, +Dumervil, and although we lost our best corner in Brock, we have considerable depth there, and our acquisitions + high picks should outweigh that
St. Louis Rams - Andrew Whitworth is an enormous add at LT, Robert Quinn being fully healthy, and a full year for Goff should help a bit. Plus Wade Phillips at DC.
New Orleans Saints - I think Adrian Peterson is an enormous add and will affect the offense more than losing Cooks. I also think the defense is better without catastrophic injuries to the secondary.
Carolina Panthers - An odd year, plus the addition of CMac, and O-line health, with Kuechly back. Also didnt lose anyone significant.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Adding DeSean Jackson and OJ Howard are great weapons, Doug Martin should be fully healthy, and their defense has great pieces.
Minnesota Vikings - I think the main point here is O-line health, which if they maintain, they can continue that amazing start they had at the beginning of the season. Harrison Smith, Xavier Rhodes, Terrance Newman, Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks, Linval Joseph, Danielle Hunter, Everson Griffen is so insanely stacked and an underrated Bradford and WR corps with a non-dead run game would be incredible.
New York Giants - Added two potentially great weapons with Marshall and Engram to make a ridiculous passing attack. One more year for Perkins to develop is definitely solid, and their defense didnt lose anyone major outside if Hankins.
Philadelphia Eagles - Added Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith to make a great trio at WR. Get Lane Johnson for a whole season to contribute to an amazing line, and I think the secondary losses arent that important.
San Diego Chargers - Getting Verrett back will make their CB corps insanely stacked, they have Bosa now with a full offseason, Jatavis Brown getting better, getting Keenan Allen back, healthy offensive line etc. Basically if theyre more healthy than last year, they should be good.
Houston Texans - Gaining Watt is worth more than losing Bouye. Also, any other QB besides Brock is an upgrade. Thats a pretty quick summary of their offseason.
Jacksonville Jaguars - AJ Bouye and Calais Campbell are great acquisitions, one more year for Ramsey should do wonders, Fournette has had so much hype as well, and Allen Robinson should return to the mean.
Indianapolis Colts - Improvement on O-line health, getting Moncrief back, will turn that offense even better. Return ti the mean for Vontae Davis, getting Hankins, and drafting Hooker should definitely help the defense as well.
Tennessee Titans - Lots of lowkey additions for them, Sly Williams, Jonathan Cyprien, as well as WRs Eric Decker and Corey Davis. They have good depth at their strengths, and Mariota's still improving.
Cleveland Browns - Pryor is better than Britt, but getting Zeitler, Tretter, Garrett, Collins for a full season, and Peppers will definitely help. Plus nowhere to go but up.
Baltimore Ravens - Jefferson with Weddle's gonna be a nightmare, plus if Jimmy Smith is healthy, that secondarys gonna be a nightmare. Their front 7 might suffer a bit with Suggs aging and Dumervil gone, but adding Maclin and Woodhead to the offense is going to help out a lot
Arizona Cardinals - This is a tough one cuz Tyrann Mathieu healthy is going to be huge, and I believe Carson Palmer still has a year left. However, I think the O-line, especially Iupati and Veldheer, wont get too much better if at all, and losing Calais Campbell and Tony Jefferson is gonna be devastating.
Atlanta Falcons - Adding Poe is a big add for their defense, but losing DiMarco and Shanahan isnt negligible, plus a lot of things, including O-line health came together for them. I think they become more well rounded on defense (young players get better, Trufant is back), but the offense just isnt as historically good as before without Shanahan
Chicago Bears - I think this team is going to sorely miss Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery. Interior O-line health and Howard for a full season will push this team up, but the passing offense will hinder this team. Their LBs will be nice, but their defense just isnt clicking.
Detroit Lions - They won a really high percentage of close games last season and I think that regresses to the mean a bit. Wagner and Lang are great adds, but the Decker injury balances that a bit. They need Ansah to come back, but if he doesn't, their defense will look horrendously bad, and although Abdullah could provide a needed spark to their run game, he hasnt proven he can yet. Too many unknowns and its likely that some of them wont turn out well.
Green Bay Packers - There's a point where continuing to lose your elite guards will start haunting you. This wont be a significant drop since a healthy secondary + Martellus Bennett will help them, but we also have to see how Ty does with a full season at RB.
Dallas Cowboys - Sophomore slump is a thing, and if it hits even one of Zeke or Dak, then that will honestly be enough to have this team regress from its incredible season last year. A lot of losses on defense doesnt help either.
Washington Redskins - Gaining Pryor doesnt offset losing Garcon and DeSean, and Reed's constant injury problems dont help out here. They havent done much to address their run game problems either.
Oakland Raiders - Getting Carr for one extra game will help, but their offense was ridiculously healthy otherwise, regression to the mean will hurt. Also, similar to the Lions, they won a higher percentage of close games than normal. Nothing really helps their defense that much, MEJ healthy wi give a little boost, but not anything major. I dont think Lynch does much more for their run game compared to last year.
Kansas City Chiefs - Losing Maclin was not the best move, and Poe wasnt as good as before but still a good piece. I think that offsets the great impact that Justin Houston will bring back to the team. That plus some QB uncertainty definitely wont help. Also, I dont think their run game improves, and actually regresses from last year. Same for Tyreek Hill, there have been speedsters before with great early seasons, who then get shut down
Denver Broncos - Biggest thing here is coaching staff changes, losing Kubiak and Phillips. Not too many roster changes that are significant, but those coaching changes will most likely hurt the team a bit.
Cincinnati Bengals - Losing an elite guard and tackle will do some shit to you, and I think that we'll see how that works with the Bengals. I think it collapses their run game, even with Mixon, and prevents Dalton from returning to 2015 form.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Yeah they get some age on defensive young players, and Heyward fully healthy, but I think that some of their offensive linemen (Foster, Villanueva) are likely to regress to the mean. Additionally, they were very injury free on offense last year. Finally, I think Big Ben's about to start to decline, giving some basis on his retirement plans. He hasnt been playing as well as usual last year either.
Buffalo Bills - Didnt really address their problems, still a deficiency at WR, and although DiMarco should help their run game, losing Gilllislee wont help. Add in the loss of Gilmore is going to hurt a little, and theyll probably get a little worse.
Miami Dolphins - Getting Tannehill and Reshad back healthy for the whole season, and Hayes will help a bit, but Cameron Wake is getting older and won't be as productive, their OL problems werent really fixed, Pouncey has had injury scares, Tunsil is moving to LT already to replace the loss of Albert, and Ajayi had a very streaky season that he needs to replicate to give the Dolphins a chance to get better. They also finished with a pretty easy schedule.
New York Jets - They've pretty much started tanking, losing Decker, Harris, very little vets, no good QB. They're my current pick for worst team in the league.
New England Patriots - The complete dark horse. Now to clarify, I dont expect them to not get a first round bye, Im just saying regressing from 14-2 is easy. And I think it starts with the offensive line. Pretty much completely healthy last year, and that formed the basis of a much improved Pats offense. I expect guys who played above their usual talent (Cannon, Solder) to regress to the mean, and offset the offensive gains in Cooks, Gillislee, and Burkehead. Running game will be worse than last year due to the OL, and although Cooks is an excellent target, I dont expect him to be any better than him in NO, which was a low end WR1/high end WR2, which isnt game changing. On the defensive side, I dont expect there to be a large difference in the switch from Logan Ryan to Stephon Gilmore, their edge is still bad with Ealy deserving a depth spot rather than a starter, and although they added Harris, I still believe that freelancing or not, Collins helped their defense more in half a season than Harris will for a full one, hes not that much above their next LB in line.
So anyways, what are your guys' thoughts?
EDIT: If you think your team deserves to be on improving, not regressing, find a team that should be bumped off improving and why. Obviously you think your team will improve, thats the reason I went through this exercise
Submitted July 04, 2017 at 02:37PM by Maad-Dog
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